How PriceSquirrel Works
This page documents the exact methodology behind the Buy/Wait/Neutral verdict engine — real thresholds, real data sources, real limitations. No marketing language.
1. How the verdict is calculated
The full algorithm in plain language
For each GPU SKU at each retailer, we maintain a 30-day rolling average price. The verdict is determined by comparing the current price against that average:
Current price ≤ all-time tracked low × 1.01. The cheapest we have ever seen this card. Triggered rarely.
current < avg30d × 0.95Current price is more than 5% below the 30-day average. Statistically low relative to recent market history.
current > avg30d × 1.05Current price is more than 5% above the 30-day average. Elevated relative to recent history.
within ±5% of avg30dCurrent price is in line with the 30-day average. Neither a deal nor an overcharge.
Why not MSRP? In the 2026 EU GPU market, MSRP is functionally irrelevant — cards routinely trade 20–60% above it with no sign of converging. Using MSRP as a baseline would produce a permanent WAIT verdict for nearly every card. We benchmark against observed real-market history instead.
2. Outlier and data quality handling
What gets filtered and what doesn't
Currently the algorithm uses raw scraped prices without outlier filtering. A scalper listing at 2× market rate at a tracked retailer would temporarily inflate that retailer's 30-day average.
In practice this rarely causes problems because:
- The verdict is computed across all tracked stores, not per-store in isolation
- A single elevated data point is diluted across 30 days of history
- We track retailer storefronts, not marketplace listings — scalper prices don't appear here
Roadmap: Standard deviation-based outlier filtering (exclude prices more than 2σ above the per-SKU mean) is planned once sufficient history accumulates to make σ meaningful.
3. Data sources and update frequency
Where the numbers come from
Alternate.de
Germany
Coolblue.de
Germany
LDLC.com
France
Azerty.nl
Netherlands
4. What the verdicts mean in practice
Plain language, no hedging
BUY — This price is statistically low
The current price is more than 5% below what it has averaged over the past 30 days. If you need this card, this is a reasonable time to buy. It doesn't mean the price won't drop further — it means it's below its recent norm.
WAIT — This price is elevated
The current price is more than 5% above its 30-day average. Unless you need the card urgently, historical data suggests patience is likely to be rewarded. Not a guarantee — just a signal.
NEUTRAL — Price is in line with recent history
The price is within ±5% of its 30-day average. No strong signal either way. The decision should be based on your personal need and budget, not market timing.
5. What we don't do
Honest limitations
We don't predict the future. Every verdict is backward-looking — we analyse historical price data, not forecasts.
We don't account for your personal budget or use case. A WAIT verdict on a €1,200 card is irrelevant if you need it today.
We don't factor in retailer reputation, shipping costs, or warranty differences between stores. Two identical prices at different stores get identical verdicts.
Our history goes back to March 10, 2026. Verdicts will become more accurate as the 30-day and 90-day windows fill with real data.
Shipping cost comparison is on the roadmap but not yet implemented.
Retailer trust scoring (reviews, return policy) is on the roadmap.
FAQ
How often are prices updated?
Every 6 hours. The scraper runs automatically across all tracked stores and every data point is stored permanently.
Why is MSRP not used as the baseline?
In the 2026 EU GPU market, MSRP has no relationship to actual retail pricing. Cards routinely sell 20–60% above MSRP with no sign of converging. Using MSRP as a reference would make every verdict WAIT permanently. We benchmark against real observed market prices instead.
How accurate are the verdicts with limited history?
Less accurate in the first 30 days. The 30-day average is the baseline — before that window fills up, verdicts default to Insufficient Data. Verdicts will sharpen as the dataset matures. Tracking started March 10 2026.
Which GPUs do you track?
Currently RTX 5070, RTX 5070 Ti, RTX 5080, RTX 5090, and RX 9070 XT series from major AIB partners. Coverage is expanding.
Why only Europe?
EU GPU pricing is structurally different from US pricing — VAT, import duties, and local supply chains mean US price history is irrelevant to EU buyers. Sites like CamelCamelCamel are US-focused. We fill the EU gap.
See it in action
Every GPU card page shows the live verdict, per-retailer timestamps, and 90-day price history.
Browse GPUs →